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    配资论坛:蒙格斯智库2019年经济展望:真正的岁月经得起流年

    时间:2019/1/1 17:23:14  作者:  来源:  查看:15  评论:0
    内容摘要:  真正的岁月经得起流年。2018蜿蜒犹在:各种撞击、各种激情、各种起伏跌宕、各种波动曲折、各种机遇与挫折、各种险滩与洪流、各种冲动与安歇。我们经历了史上最跌宕起伏的中美贸易摩擦、史上最严厉的房价调控和金融监管,还经历了如长生生物这样的企业信用危机。但雄伟中国仍然创造了前三季度6...
      真正的岁月经得起流年。2018蜿蜒犹在:各种撞击、各种激情、各种起伏跌宕、各种波动曲折、各种机遇与挫折、各种险滩与洪流、各种冲动与安歇。我们经历了史上最跌宕起伏的中美贸易摩擦、史上最严厉的房价调控和金融监管,还经历了如长生生物这样的企业信用危机。但雄伟中国仍然创造了前三季度6.5%的经济增长率,中国经济仍然屹立于世界经济的桥头。在新年的第一天,蒙格斯智库携自主研发的“蒙格斯经济形势指数和拐点体系”,通过计量预测展望启航的2019,带来别具一格的元旦献词。

      蒙格斯经济形势指数和拐点体系

      蒙格斯智库认为,判断经济形势并非经济数据的“好坏”那么简单,而是要衡量各种经济数据对经济增长和民生改善的趋势性作用如何。如何预判2019,我们尝试用蒙格斯经济形势指数来开创一种新颖的形势解读方式和角度。形势指数构建的第一步是将宏观经济分为若干板块,对每个板块通过选取具有代表性不同维度的1-3个指标,生成板块指数以此反映该板块的发展程度和健康程度;然后以各板块指数合成综合经济形势指数;最后,基于形势指数,从经济增长(人均GDP同比增长率)和民生改善(以人均可支配收入、居民人均教育文化娱乐消费支出、居民人均医疗保健支出、居民最低保障覆盖人数、失业率等构成民生改善指数)两个维度寻找各板块和整体经济的拐点,前者为增长拐点,后者为民生拐点,以此判断经济发展趋势对人均产出以及民生状况的贡献。贡献趋于大则形势优,贡献趋于小则形势差。基于形势指数的含义,我们对2019的形势展望可以归纳为以下几点:

      1 政策环境:相对积极的财政政策与松紧适度的货币政策

      根据2018年12月的中央经济工作会议,2019年依旧要维持稳健的财政政策,并提出要加力提效及实施更大规模的减税降费,让利于民,从而提高企业的利润收入和居民的个人收入。2019年预计减税降费累计将超过2018年总体水平,财政支出扩大,赤字率可能会继续增加,突破3%的国际警戒线。值得注意的是,积极的财政政策和减税措施固然可以对经济产生促进作用,但需要关注政府债务问题。蒙格斯研究成果表明,地方政府债务规模已经超过拐点,进一步扩大地方政府债务会阻碍经济的健康增长。

      保持稳健的货币政策:形势指数预计2019年货币政策将维持稳健,改善货币政策传导机制,提高直接融资比重,解决好民营企业和小微企业融资难融资贵问题,并从促进“宽货币”向“宽信用”转化。为保持货币市场运行稳健,市场利率或进一步下行。从通胀来看,本轮M2走低已持续一年多,将开始逐步传导到物价层面,从而限制2019年通胀涨幅。预计2019年通胀仍将保持温和状态,全年CPI同比增长2.3%,偏离国际标准的2%距离不远。

      2 消费:消费分级、量降质升趋势预计不变

      2018年社会零售品销售总额呈现增速下降趋势,但是消费品信心指数却有所提升,表现出中国消费分级、量降质升的特点。以白酒业为例,高端市场价格和销量都有提升,而中低端市场销量出现下降,带动白酒市场整体销售额增速下降,但整体质量提升。形势指数预计2019年该趋势保持不变,但需注意个税的降低可能对消费额的刺激作用,预计2019年社会零售品销售总额下滑趋势得到部分遏制。蒙格斯智库运用销售额和消费者体验相关指标合成反映消费市场趋势的消费形势指数,2018年三季度值为0.44,2019年一季度预计该值达到0.5以上,反映出消费市场的相对乐观走向。消费增长拐点和民生拐点为0.56和0.6,指数值均小于拐点值,意味着2019年一季度消费市场的积极发展有利于经济增长和民生发展。下图为消费形势指数、人均GDP同比指数与民生综合指数趋势图,其中最新两期为预测值,用虚线表示(下同):

    3
      3 固定资产投资:财政刺激基建提速或带动投资回暖

      2018年投资增速创多年新低,基建投资为首要因素。2018年投资表现出四个特征:一是基建投资增长“失速”,前10个月,基建投资同比仅增长3.7%;二是制造业投资和民间投资稳中有升;三是房地产投资连续第3年加速增长;四是不同地区投资分化态势明显。2019年稳投资政策频出,投资增长可能出现回暖。伴随着2019年更加积极的财政政策,基建投资有望提速,促使固定资产投资摆脱几年来不断下滑的趋势。蒙格斯智库投资形势指数2018年三季度值为0.045,预计2019年一季度该值达到0.09以上,恢复2018年一季度的水平。投资增长拐点为0.5,指数值均小于拐点值,意味着2019年一季度投资的变化有利于经济增长。同时投资形势指数与民生综合指数保持正向关系,意味着2019年一季度投资的变化同样有利于民生改善。下图为投资形势指数、人均GDP同比指数与民生综合指数趋势图:

    4
      4 外贸:国际环境或影响外贸动能下滑

      2018年外贸进出口总额增速位于近年来较高水平(前三季度数据)。2019年伴随着国内外因素叠加,外贸增长动能将减弱。抑制外贸增长的因素主要有:一是诸多不确定不稳定因素影响全球经济增长动能放缓;二是贸易保护主义上升、贸易壁垒增多;三是中国外贸订单有所减少;四是中美贸易摩擦尚未妥善解决。预计2019年出口增长6%左右、进口增长10%左右,均比2018年有所放缓。蒙格斯智库运用外贸进出口总额生成外贸形势指数,2018一季度值为0.59,预计2019年一季度该值为0.57,外贸形势指数均小于增长拐点值,意味着外贸的下滑会对2019年经济增长造成一定拖累。同时研究表明外贸形势指数与民生综合指数关系不明确。下图为外贸形势指数、人均GDP同比指数与民生综合指数趋势图:

    5
      5 就业市场:新增就业人口多与就业岗位供不应求或继续并存

      2018年就业市场保持相对稳定,全年新增城镇就业人口1200万人,新增就业人数的增速为近几年最高。但值得注意的是,就业市场供求比却出现了不匹配的情况,就业市场在近几年比较中已经处于明显的供不应求状态之中。2019年预计就业市场仍然伴有以上特征。蒙格斯智库运用新增就业增速与就业供求比生成就业形势指数,2018年一季度该值为0.247,预计2019年一季度该值为0.3以上,较2018同比略有提升,但仍处于近几年历史较低水平。尽管就业形势指数具有强烈季节性特征,与经济增长和民生综合指数关系不甚明确,但就业形势依然不容乐观。下图为就业形势指数、人均GDP同比指数与民生综合指数趋势图:

    6
      6 工业:增速下降趋势放缓或伴随核心指标继续回暖

      2018年工业增加值增速出现下降,但发电量、货运量、钢铁产量等工业核心指标却出现了一定程度的回暖,显现出工业指标变化趋势分化的一些特点。伴随着2019年大规模的减税降费,企业生存状态和利润的优化和提升,消费端的合理刺激,预计2019年工业增加值增速下降趋势有所减缓,但依然保持下降趋势。而工业核心指标预计保持回暖趋势。蒙格斯智库运用发电量、货运量、钢铁产量等核心指标生成工业核心形势指数,该指数2018年一季度为0.298,预计2019年一季度达到0.49,同比上升。工业核心形势指数小于增长拐点值,其同比上升对经济增长是利好,同时其与民生综合指数保持正向关系,所以其同比上升对民生状况也是利好。但由于工业增加值增速的下滑,工业板块对经济增长的贡献不高于2018年。下图为工业核心形势指数、人均GDP同比指数与民生综合指数趋势图:

    7
      7 农业:继续保持稳定

      2018年农林牧渔产值保持稳定增长趋势。实际上近3年来农业板块增长趋势基本保持稳定。预计2019年该增长趋势依然保持和2018年一致,有3%左右增长率,对经济增长的贡献保持不变。但需要注意国际大环境对较为依赖外贸的农业子行业和企业的影响。总体来说,农业形势指数与人均GDP增长、民生综合指数关系不明显,表明农业形势对整体经济形势的影响趋微。下图为农业形势指数、人均GDP同比指数与民生综合指数趋势图:

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      8 房地产市场:投资增速下滑与部分地区房价恢复增长或并存

      根据中央精神,对2019年房地产政策形成三个主要判断。一、2018年“控房价”成效显著,2019年“稳房价”是基调。二、地方政府有更大的调控自主权,将平衡“稳增长、保财政和房价上涨”压力。三、涉及土地、租赁、保障的调控政策将进一步完善。2018年房地产投资增速较2017年出现回暖趋势,体现出房企的信心和景气状况。但预计2019年投资增速较2018略有下滑,而由于地方政府平衡大规模财政支出和调控自主权的加强,部分城市地价、房价预计增长率较2018为高,整体房价稳定程度略有下降。蒙格斯智库运用房地产投资增速和房价稳定状态为指标构建房地产形势指数。该指数2018年三季度值为0.62,预计2019年一季度值为0.57,显示房地产市场状况可能出现下滑。房地产市场增长拐点为0.55,因此指数值大于拐点值,指数值的下降对经济增长并无负面作用。这主要是因为房地产市场前期发展已较为充分,该指数的下降并不会对整体经济造成拖累,反而可能对经济增长有利。此外房地产形势指数与民生综合指数呈现正向关系,因此该指数下降对民生不利,所以总的来看会保持相对稳定。下图为房地产形势指数、人均GDP同比指数与民生综合指数趋势图:

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      9 金融市场:流动性改善、谨慎乐观

      2019年,债券市场仍将维持今年以来稳中向好行情,主要是经济下行压力的加大和流动性宽裕的预期利好债券市场的环境。另外利好债市发展的政策也有望于2019年不断出台。但同时中美利差的收窄、信用风险依然较大会对债市造成一定阻碍。展望2019年,A股大概率呈现前平后高的走势。预计2019年市场情绪较2018年有所恢复。由于流动性的改善,使得民营企业状况的改善,更多地方政府、金融机构的积极参与也会有利于股市的发展。然而由于通缩预期和外部环境的影响,期货市场吸引力不如之前。总体来说,金融市场2019年前景审慎乐观。蒙格斯智库运用债券市场、股票市场、期货市场的重要指标合成金融市场形势指数,该指数2018年三季度值为0.42,预测2019年一季度值为0.44,显示出金融市场的改善趋势。该指数小于增长拐点值0.53,说明金融市场的改善对经济增长有利。同时金融市场指数与民生综合指数呈现正向关系,其数值的提升亦对民生状况有利,总体应持乐观态度。下图为金融市场形势指数、人均GDP同比指数与民生综合指数趋势图:

    10
      10 创新:创新动能或继续优化

      2018年中国创新指数位居全球第17位,较2017年提升5位,反映出中国经济在诸多热点领域如互联网和人工智能方面创新的活力和动力。预计2019年该指数会较2018年进一步提升,按照历史规律国际位次也会有3-5位的提升。

      11 综合经济形势:整体稳中略降,追求质量提升

      2019年将是经济发展更趋于理性的一年,同时受累于外部大环境的影响,2019年经济增长速度可能较2018年略有下滑。蒙格斯智库运用各板块形势指数合成综合经济形势指数,该指数2018年三季度值为0.45,2019年一季度该指数预测值下滑至0.43左右。综合经济形势指数值均小于增长拐点值0.52,说明其值的下降可能伴随着2019年一季度人均GDP增长率下降。同时综合形势指数与民生综合指数呈现正向关系,可见经济形势指数的下降不利于民生。以上说明提升经济质量有助于形势趋好。中国经济2019年依然面对转型期,逐渐从对“量”的追求转向对“质”的提升。从这一层面来说,经济增速的小幅下降并不值得担忧。下图为综合经济形势指数、人均GDP同比指数、民生综合指数趋势图:

    12
      12 提示

      整体来说,2019年的经济发展趋势是回归理性。具体到各个经济参与者,我们提出以下建议,仅供参考。

      对投资者而言,在政策的逐步推行下,政策成效将逐步显现,金融市场及固定资产投资预计随之回暖,投资者应对中国经济形势保持信心。此外,由于实体经济与虚拟经济失衡,在抑虚推实的趋势下,应该选择投向实体;


      对企业而言,尽管减税降费及流动性改善对于企业有一定帮助,但仍建议保持一定的现金流以应对不确定性和风险;

      对居民而言,当下消费行为是理性的。随着消费权益保护的完善和市场信息对称性的提升,消费分级的状况预计会继续延续。在2019减税降费的大背景下,居民消费要继续保持理性,避免过多的居民债务问题带来潜在的风险;

      对金融机构而言,应顺势而为,增加小企业信贷和消费信贷、提升服务能力、稳定信贷规模、防范流动性风险;

      对政府而言,应坚定目标、保持定力,注重对政策传导机制的把控、防范债务风险。

      最后,祝福各位读者新年愉快,2019通达平安!

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