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    线上配资:海通荀玉根:目前市场三大一致预期2019年可能被颠覆

    时间:2019/1/1 17:23:55  作者:  来源:  查看:17  评论:0
    内容摘要:  海通策略团队祝您及家人:新年快乐、身体健康、万事如意!  核心结论:①展望2019年,目前市场有三大一致预期:股市上半年弱下半年强、成长风格更优、外资流入支撑消费股。②这些预判和现有数据间存在一些矛盾,预期未来有可能被颠覆,要么演绎节奏变化,要么波动空间更大。③战略乐观、战术...
      海通策略团队祝您及家人:新年快乐、身体健康、万事如意!

      核心结论:①展望2019年,目前市场有三大一致预期:股市上半年弱下半年强、成长风格更优、外资流入支撑消费股。②这些预判和现有数据间存在一些矛盾,预期未来有可能被颠覆,要么演绎节奏变化,要么波动空间更大。③战略乐观、战术务实,持有高股息率股等待更好时机,跟踪政策,等待稳增长、改革减税等措施落地。

      2019年可能被颠覆的三大预期

      2019年A股市场整体的分析和判断,我们前期报告《穿越黑暗迎黎明——2019年A股投资策略-20181209》已经探讨过。最近卖方分析师和买方机构投资者都在展望2019年,在三个方面存在较一致的预期,本文讨论下这些一致预期被打破的可能性。

      1.   预期一:市场上半年弱下半年强

      预期前低后高,基金仓位却不低。目前对于2019年,市场普遍预期上半年基本面相对较差,对A股较谨慎,下半年随着政策落地,股市机会更大。有点矛盾的是,虽然大部分投资者都不看好19年上半年,但目前基金仓位水平并不低。根据基金2018年三季报统计的普通股票型、偏股混合型基金的仓位分别为85.1%、81.5%,均处于历史偏高水平,2005年以来均值分别为81%、79%。由于2018Q4基金季报尚未公布,参考万得测算的股票型、偏股混合型基金仓位数据,18Q4相比Q3分别下降了1.4,2.72个百分点,按此推算目前股票型、偏股混合型基金仓位分别为83.7%、78.8%,相对于2017年末降幅分别为2.2、4.4个百分点。2005年以来上证综指跌幅超20%的年度,如2008年、2011年,2018年偏股混合型基金仓位分别下降11.6、6、4.4个百分点。回顾05年以来的市场底部时期,偏股混合型基金仓位最低基本在75%左右(08年最低降至67.7%),目前偏股混合型基金78.8%的仓位水平并不低。从保险机构的角度来看,截至2018/10股票和基金投资占保险资金运用余额的比例从18年初的13.4%降至12.7%,略低于2015年以来均值13.3%,2014年年中市场低迷时只有9.4%。为何2018年年度跌幅创了历史次高,机构投资者仓位并没有明显下降?我们在之前报告分析过,上证综指从2018年1月29日3587点高点到10月19日2449点低点,最大跌幅1138点,期间出现四次跳空缺口,缺口合计601点,占跌幅一半多,因此投资者实际能减仓操作的区间只有537点,来不及减仓。

      预期被打破的可能路径:波动空间放大、时间提前或推后。虽然投资者普遍不看好19年上半年市场基本面,但基金仓位仍然偏高。这反映大部分投资者内心认为市场未来跌不深,没有减仓的必要。这种心态主要源于2018年跌幅已经很大、市场静态估值已经很低。未来市场回撤幅度会否更大呢?回顾2000年以来行情,上证综指年初开盘价一般不是全年最低价,剔除牛市中期的2000、2006、2009年三年,其余年份最低点位相比开盘点位的跌幅分三种情况:第一,最低点相比开盘点回撤5%左右,如03、14、17年,属于偏强的震荡市,第二,最低点相比开盘点回撤10-15%,如04、12、15年,属于偏弱的震荡市或牛市结束,第三,最低点相比开盘点回撤15-25%,如01、10、11、13、16、18年等,属于熊市或很弱的震荡市。由此可见,回撤10%及以上占比较高。目前万得统计的2018年GDP一致预期为6.6%,2019的GDP为6.3%,如果未来经济超预期下行,则可能导致上证综指回撤幅度超预期。另一种打破预期的可能性是投资机会出现的时间超预期。目前投资者普遍预期19年下半年市场基本面改善,投资机会出现。但如果稳增长政策落地时间滞后,或改革效果迟迟没有出现,有可能导致熬底时间延后,类似14年11-12月投资机会才爆发。反之,如果19年上半年改革大力推进,市场投资机会也可能会提前。



    2.   预期二:成长风格更优2.   预期二:成长风格更优
      预期风格偏成长,自下而上难选行业和公司。市场普遍预期2019年的市场风格将偏向成长,主要是因为从历史看A股大小盘风格轮换周期一般2-3年,16-17年价值胜出,18年两者关系弱化,往后看成长更优。从盈利的角度看,展望2019年预计出口增速和地产投资增速下滑仍将造成较大的经济下行压力,企业盈利也将持续筑底,强周期的价值板块盈利下滑压力更大,而随着18年商誉减值负面影响的消退,成长股盈利或将筑底企稳,两者盈利趋势的扭转或促成市场风格的转换。并且价值与成长的相对估值,如PE:上证50/创业板指、PE:中证100/中证500已经处于2010年以来的高位。但目前的矛盾在于,自下而上难选成长性行业和公司。市场关注较多的成长方向如5G、新能源汽车、医药、光伏、军工、计算机,这些板块以及板块龙头股的估值与盈利匹配度都比较差。具体来看,5G板块的PE(TTM)为133倍,2018Q3净利润同比增速为-71.8%,新能源汽车为13.4倍、3.4%,医药为26倍、9.4%,光伏为21倍、2.7%,军工为54.6倍、22.8%,计算机为43倍、-2.6%。从PEG角度来看,新能源汽车4倍、医药2.8倍、光伏为7.9倍、军工2.4倍。从这些板块龙头股的角度来看,5G、新能源汽车、光伏板块的龙头股中兴通讯(19.590, -0.31, -1.56%)、比亚迪(51.000, 0.16, 0.31%)、隆基股份(17.440, -0.26, -1.47%)在2018Q3净利润持续负增长,而医药、计算机、军工板块龙头股恒瑞医药(52.750, 1.25, 2.43%)、三六零(20.370, 0.21, 1.04%)、中国重工(4.250, -0.01, -0.23%)按2018Q3净利润增速计算的PEG分别为2.4倍、5倍、4倍。

      预期被打破的可能路径:这些行业进一步消化估值。对于成长类公司而言,19年首先可能面临的风险是业绩进一步下行。1月底中小创年报预告将披露完毕,截止2018/12/28,中小板、创业板业绩预告披露率分别为99%、14%,对应2018年净利同比为12%、70%。此处创业板披露率较低,暂不考虑,中小板年报业绩预告值较三季报下滑,中小板18Q3净利累计同比的预告值为13%,实际值为6.9%,预计2018年中小板归母净利润同比增速较前三季度进一步下滑,需密切关注基本面数据回落对市场的压力。在2017年7月、2018年1月下旬中小创披露业绩预告时,部分业绩较差的公司都出现过股价闪崩的现象。如2017年7月的华兰生物(32.800, 0.00, 0.00%)、温氏股份(26.180, 0.30, 1.16%)、贝因美等在不达预期的中报业绩预告公布后,股价短期最大跌幅达25%、15%、25%,2018年1月獐子岛(3.260, 0.02, 0.62%)(维权)、巴士在线等在公布了不达预期的年报业绩预告后,股价短期跌幅分别达48%、46%。另一方面的风险可能来自于科创板。18年11月5日领导人提出将在上海证券交易所设立科创板并试点注册制,如果注册制快速推进,大批量公司上市,有可能会推动中小板、创业板估值中枢进一步下移。类似05年4月29日证监会正式启动股权分置改革后,市场尾部风险释放,上证综指最终跌至998点。


    3.   预期三:外资流入支撑消费股3.   预期三:外资流入支撑消费股
      预期外资净流入支撑消费股,但消费股持仓高、PE不低。在前期报告《全球视角看人民币资产的价值-20181128》中我们分析过,人民币国际化的不断推进及中国金融市场不断开放,推动人民币资产配置性需求上升,外资持续流入A股。2018年外资流入A股的规模为3360亿元,2019年A股将纳入罗素富时指数,并且纳入MSCI指数的比例也将进一步提高,预计2019年外资净流入A股规模为4000亿元。长期视角看,外资流入A股是大势所趋。从投资风格来看,外资机构投资者风格重消费、轻周期,2015年以来QFII持股中消费股占比平均比公募基金高6个百分点左右,周期股占比平均比公募基金低12个百分点。目前市场对于未来外资继续流入没有分歧,由此预期外资是确定性的增量资金,流入会支撑消费股。但消费股目前存在持仓高、PE不低。截至2018Q3,除保险以外的机构投资者普遍重仓消费板块,QFII、陆股通、公募基金持仓市值中消费类行业占比分别为38%、47%、44%。从估值角度看,食品饮料尤其是白酒板块估值也不低,白酒PE(TTM)、PB(LF)(下同)分别处于05年以来自下而上26%、39%历史分位,食品为8.5%、34%。

      预期被打破的可能路径:外盘波动大、汇率贬值导致外资阶段性流出。长期看外资流入A股是大势所趋,但是不是消费板块就能高枕无忧?我们认为仍然需要警惕外盘波动,以及人民币阶段性贬值引发的外资短期流出的风险。在18年2月初、10月初,由于美股快速下跌曾导致外资阶段性流出,在18年2月、10月北上资金净流出额分别为26亿、105亿。外资短期流出也对外资重仓的消费板块造成冲击,18年2月上证综指跌幅6.4%,食品饮料板块跌幅6.6%,白酒板块跌幅7.8%。18年10月上证综指跌幅7.75%,食品饮料板块跌幅21.7%,白酒板块跌幅26.5%。另一方面,人民币汇率贬值压力较大的时期也会出现阶段性外资流出现象,如15年“811汇改”之后北上资金曾单周净流出金额达22亿,15年11月人民币贬值压力较大的时期北上资金月净流出额达165亿。目前投资者普遍担忧19年上半年经济基本面,1月中下旬需关注12月的经济数据,包括出口、房地产、消费、投资、通胀等。特别注意,目前中美贸易争端未决,若我国出口数据出现大幅下滑,中美贸易顺差收窄,那么人民币汇率承压,外资可能出现阶段性流出A股,这将对股市形成基本面和资金面的双重压力。



    4.   应对策略:行稳致远4.   应对策略:行稳致远
      战略乐观,战术务实。展望A股中长期,《穿越黑暗迎黎明——2019年A股投资策略-20181209》中分析过, A股处在第五轮牛熊周期末期,战略乐观:全球各国股市横向比较,A股吸引力更大,中国发展股权融资支持产业升级,居民资产配置将偏向股市。对于中短期市场,我们维持《策略周报-留一份警惕-20181216》的观点,对A股偏谨慎,蛰伏等待,战术务实。目前市场政策底已经显现,业绩底还未出现,何时能看到市场底?回顾历史上政策转向,市场底出现的信号是政策落到实处,开始对基本面发挥效用,其中重要的是流动性的量价指标。只有企业实际融资成本下降时才能真正推动企业扩大再生产,需求才能回升,代表性指标是加权平均贷款利率、贷款类信托产品利率等广谱利率。此外,新增信贷放量和M2同比增速回升能反映企业已经实际获得资金投入生产经营。最典型的2008年,市场从1814点再次开启上涨行情直至3478点,主要原因是08年12月与09年1月新增人民币贷款大幅上升至7700亿与16200亿,表明基本面虽然还未扭转,但是前期政策效果已经开始显现。12月21日中央经济工作会议召开,提出“经济面临下行压力”和“宏观政策要强化逆周期调节”,财政政策方面“实施更大规模的减税降费,较大幅度增加地方政府专项债券规模”,货币政策方面“稳健的货币政策要松紧适度,保持流动性合理充裕”,相比之前“稳健中性”描述更积极。由此可见,未来宏观政策大概率要加码,目前需要等待政策落地及效果显现,2019年的机会是等出来的,所谓战术上务实。行情如果提前,可能源于国内改革大力推进,跟踪十九届四中全会。行情如果延后,可能源于大国关系恶化。

      先求稳,高股息策略。《策略专题-类衰退时期股市特征-20181218》提出当前经济从类滞胀到类衰退,在此期间股市回落找市场底,高股息策略优势显现。从宏观背景看,2018年下半年经济呈现类滞胀特征,往后看经济增速下行仍将持续,经济将由类滞胀走向类衰退,08/4-09/3和11/9-12/9经济都出现过类衰退特征,这两段区间内高股息类行业呈现明显的超额收益。而且,在经济类衰退期,往往会降息,债券以及类债券特征的高股息股票将受益。根据行业分析师盈利预测,结合历史分红率预测股息,我们筛选沪深300成分中高股息率、稳定分红个股如表3。此外,类衰退后期受益于政策宽松的行业表现更优。10月、12月中央政治局会议较7月底相比均未提及房地产调控,2018年中央经济工作会议对于房地产的定位是“构建健康发展长效机制”,而2017年“保持房地产市场调控政策连续性和稳定性”,如果2019年一季度经济数据持续下滑,不排除地产政策微调的可能,类似2012年初房地产政策开始微调,地产行业指数跑赢上证综指。行业分析师预计18/19年地产净利润同比增速分别为23%/8%,目前地产行业PB(LF,整体法)估值1.41倍,处于历史自下而上2%分位,若政策微调,地产板块受益。风格上,A股价值成长风格切换周期是2-3年,决定风格的核心力量是利润增速强弱对比,而政策影响利润增速,13-15年风格偏成长源于并购重组政策,16-18年风格偏价值源于供给侧结构性改革政策。目前战略性看好成长,这是因为政策再次偏向科技创新类,2018年中央经济工作会议明确提出“要推动先进制造业和现代服务业深度融合,坚定不移建设制造强国”,先进制造如5G产业链、新能源车产业链,服务消费如医疗健康、保险。

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